Prime logistics rents across Europe's core distribution corridors were flat in the second quarter, the first quarter without growth since the pandemic-era e-commerce boom began. Rents in the Netherlands, Germany's Rhine-Ruhr region and northern France had more than doubled over the preceding five years; that run has now paused.
The plateau reflects normalisation on both sides of the market. Occupier demand has settled back toward its long-run trend after several years of pandemic-driven over-ordering of warehouse space, while a wave of speculative development commissioned at the peak of the cycle is now completing, adding vacancy in several submarkets for the first time in years.
"Occupiers spent three years taking space for a demand curve that didn't fully materialise. This is the market working through that, not a sign logistics has stopped mattering."
The slowdown is uneven. Last-mile urban logistics assets close to major population centres continue to see rental growth, constrained by limited available land, while big-box space on the edge of secondary cities is where the new vacancy is concentrated. Investors are repricing accordingly, with yields on prime urban logistics holding firm even as big-box yields have softened.
Figures in this analysis are illustrative placeholders pending our licensed data connection.
